April 19, 2008

The Apple of your Eye

A new phase in life brings about new challenges. Have to admit that I’ve still not fully come to terms with it. Agreed that the times surely are testing but they are exciting as well. Newer challenges bring out different aspects of a man’s personality – something which he himself doesn’t know. Without dwelling too long on philosophy lets see what’s in store for iPhone is India. Recently there was a news story making rounds about Apple’s iPhone plans in India and rumors about the operator tie-ups. As of now the launch date is sometime in September, 2008 and the operator (reportedly) is Vodafone.

India will become part of the privileged league of countries where Apple “officially” (more on this later) markets iPhones. The market surely looks set for the iPhone. One has to see it to believe it. Don’t think apple would like admit it but the sheer numbers of unlocked iPhones which are circulating in the market would have been one of the key indicators of how the market would respond. Unofficial reports peg the total number of missing iPhones in western markets at 1.4 million and the figure surely looks staggering when you compare it with the total number of iPhones sold (3 million according to Apple). Ever increasing disposable incomes in India have given rise to a new generation of gadget enthusiasts. Why are they part of the new generation? Because it’s not just the features that appeal them but they also long for killer looks. The Ever increasing consumption of XBOX’s & Playstations form only a small part of the story. Prahlad wrote a very good book about exploring profitable economic opportunities at the bottom of the pyramid but what about pampering those at the top of pyramid? Pampering is something the Indian upper middle & upper classes thoroughly deserve.

Many people talk about the revenue losses for Apple because of unlocked iPhones. I don’t quite believe people who say this is a wrong scenario for Apple to be in. Almost 80% of the “missing” iPhones find its way into the Asian markets. It was recently booted out of talks with China’s dominant operator, China Mobile because they could not finalize on a revenue share agreement. Rampant smuggling is a reality in South Asia and an Indian entry should ensure that more number of iPhones enter China. One way or the other, it can only result in increased sale of iPhones.

And what about the technology? No I am not getting into the good-old GSM Vs. CDMA debate because it’s a foregone conclusion that the technology in iPhone will be GSM. But it’s the generation of technology that is the point in discussion. The Market for 2.5G iPhones will surely decline sometime in the next few months and Apple has to find an ideal dumping ground for the 2.5G handsets & technology. What better place to dump the handset and technology than India? The Government’s confusion about 3G policy and spectrum auctioning looks never ending… The Consumers don’t seem to worry…. And the market is still a voice centric one. In India, Apple will surely find an ideal cemetery before ditching 2.5G handsets and technology.

The choice of the operator surely looks a tough one. Airtel surely is in a position of advantage but Vodafone isn’t far behind and Reliance’s iStore tie-up with Apple throws up more possibilities. An Apple/Vodafone looks a distant possibility because they couldn’t reach an understanding for the UK market before because of differences during Revenue Share discussions (Again!!!). But that was before Vodafone entered India. After the acquisition of Hutchison Essar, Vodafone added roughly further 40Mn subscribers in its world kitty and it may currently look at the entire scenario in a different light. I think Apple should go for multiple operator partnership models in India. It is looking at a huge target market here and a single operator tie-up may not be ideal as far as its market penetration targets go. This will be something that Apple has never tested or implemented (at least for iPhone) but there is a first time for everything.

1 comment:

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