- When operators from the Internet age, viz., google, skype etc enter the telecom space, the usage will be through their own web-clients. So the calling will be VoIP based, video & data will be on pure internet. So there is no requirement of softswitches in their networks and most of their networks will comprise of high end servers which will perform key functions like traffic switching.
- The Investments in these servers (both incremental & initial) is many times less than those in IMS Softswitches. This again places operators like Skype, google etc in a position of advantage.
- It is much more easier to source & manage content with servers in the backend. IMS Softswitches introduce an additional layer of processing in the network.
So is the picture really this gloomy for telecom operators ?? Is there no way out for them from the onslaught of these Internet companies ?? What about the BT's and FT's of this world who have already committed billions of dollars for deploying IMS ??
To Answer the above questions, lets take a macro look at the entire scenario. The Traditional Telecom operators are catering to each & every Subscriber of the World Telecom Subscriber base today (which is close to 3.5 billion). These companies have been here since long. They own large parts of telecom networks today and have vast expertise when it comes to managing networks and customers. I Also dont think google or skype is interested in managing telecom networks. Applications are what they specialize in and they want to stick to it. Chances of a google phone or Skype telecom service seem very very remote. Google all but killed the speculation about google phone last month by launching Andriod OS. What it will eventually do is comeout with Android loaded PDA's with vendors like HTC. People have read too much into the story of google bidding for 700 Mhz spectrum. Its not clear who has won it yet, but what google wanted to ensure was that the open access specifications remain - thats where google finds a huge market for its applications.
I Believe the eventual ecosystem that will develop will be that of Web 2.0 applications being delivered on IMS core. Last week we saw a deal between T-Mobile & Yahoo for "One" search on Mobile phones, deals between T-Mobile & Myspace, Hutchison(3 Mobile) & Skype etc are all suggesting market movement towards this phenomenon. Applications are what these Internet companies are targetting and they get a larger audience for their applications through this route. They may get much larger audience by having their own telecom networks but what about the lack of expertise in managing networks. A Further Evolution of this ecosystem may result in companies like Skype picking up stakes in telecom operators to ensure guaranteed audience for their applications. So the operators who have invested in IMS networks may sleep well without getting too much worried about their investments because they will still remain the key stakeholders (when Web 2.0 landscape fully emerges). Coexistence is the key !!! Coexistence is the future !!!
As always looking forward to your comments....
3 comments:
It is very clear that in the current decade companies like Google, yahoo etc have come up with killer applications and it is clear that the future will be demanding more of those.
Thus one can easily imagine the amount of information flow that will take place in the networks. So what I think is that from the Content distributed networks, there will be a need for content aware networks which will identify the transfer of information between different applications. Now here is where I think IMS comes into picture because Web 2.0 no doubt will be provide the next generation killer applications but it will need the framework that the IMS will provide to support these applications. That’s why IMS Web2.0 will coexist in future. Now talking about investment the Capex is very high in case of the Operators going for the IMS but if the investments are made in a phased manner I think they can hedge out any possible losses, also they will now have the support of the Application developers like Yahoo and all which will back up the investments from these Network operators. Now if we talk about Operators as the networks are getting complex the IT involved gets more complex and this is where the IBM and Microsoft come into picture, with the SOA and SDP. I wonder what Microsoft strategy is , at one side it is trying to get a stake in Yahoo which will be the Application developer and at the other side it will provide the IT solutions that it will provide to the operators. I think it’s a win win model for Microsoft too. What do u think about this Santy ?
The great telecom dilemma ----> Collaborate or Innovate ??
There are certain co-existence variants...co-exist by design Vs. co-exist by default...the latter model indicates u co-exist because u have too or more appropriately u are forced too..sadly the latter model of co-existence applies more appropriately to telco's world-wide ..thats where i propose it becomes even more important to innovate..
Lemme expalin..telcos have received a battering when it comes to delievering "rite" applications..the word killer is too far-fetched to be used!!...whilst the googles and yahoos of the world after winning the round-one with killer applications seem rejuvinated with second round of web 2.0...Where is telco 2.0 (was there even a telco 1.0??)..where did they miss out..how can ur assets turn ur liabilities...because u were busy protecting them when u shld have been busy using them..ur walled gardens jst collapsed on ur own head!!
Solution 1 : simple...file lawsuits..against ur peers and of-course web giants..does it work..sadly not..If there is anywhere a report on law firms, i bet telco's are their cash-cows!!
Solution 2 : OPEN-UP...the most abused term this open-up..for me it means realizing worth of ur own networks..open mind-space first..it doesnt require a skype to show u power of VOIP..after crying foul when web-players offered VOIP and getting nothing out of dirty lawsuits(solution 1)..operators world-wide offered flat-rate VOIP themselves and web dominance of VOIP vanished(solution 2)..BT has taken the lead by providing API's to programmers world wide which finally allows them to tweak with network and experiment..who knows a telco-You-tube or telco-orkut is on its way..of-course BT cannot allow them to inject codes into their soft-switches..still a welcome beginning..BT again has tied-up with worlds largest movie studio universal to offer full length & flat-rate movie downloads..Thats where i predict death of DRM the same way i see walled-gardens collapsing..give original content at good price(remember i-Tunes)..
y shld it require a apple/google/yahoo/skype to show u the way to utilize networks??
AT&T:I am with apple(u r damned, bad choice)
SPRINT: i am with Google (hey! google doesnt say so)
VERIZON:I am open (are u??? really, what does it mean???)
BT & FT:I am ready to experiment (little too late )
What I want to indicate is that telcos shld not make web-giants their crutches of success..i-phone contributed 37% to AT&T growth last quarter..what kind of business risk r u looking at
Mantra for me: Collaborate where necessary rest all the time innovate and experiment
Few last words on the title : IMS vs web 2.0...Shld be telco 2.0 vs web 2.0..Internet is doing all this with its best effort delivery model (shld be least effort)..its not that bad an option to build a little more application supportive networks with IMS..Can it be done with servers alone..y is google looking for a telecom partner then..why is it investing in undersea cable(a core telco domain)..coz its telco's network reliability which decides in the end how you-tube behaves on ur PC or palm for that matter..if their Application is one-half then surely ur infrastrucutre is the other..Thats where i want them to collaborate as equals and not as beneficiaries of Web 2.0 revolution
Discalimer: This comment with heavy use of pronouns(them, they, we) for telcos may seem to be heavily biased...ignore this as nothing but side-effects of being in the field!
hey Saurabh,
What me and anand were trying to convey was that the importance of applications in today's telecom world is being over played. There is no doubt about the potential that these applications hold but the so called "wall" created by telecom world is hard to break and i dont see the yahoo's, the google's or the skype's of this world breaking the wall anytime in the future. Thats where the the talk about collaboration & coexistence comes into picture.
There will be bloodbath if google went for frontal attack against telco's or if telcos block applications further and there will be eventual beneficiary. Collaboration is the key for the longterm health(growth) of the industry.
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